Boilers Come Up Empty At Illinois
I’ll be honest - I forgot it was my turn to do a recap. So I’m sitting at home, happily grinding away at Diablo III on the PS4, working through Act V so I can unlock Paragon and Adventure mode (every time I get D3, I try to complete the campaign challenges with at least one character). Wrap things up, head to bed, wake up in the morning, and I see in the fabled BS chat that there is discussion about the recap. Whoops.
Fortunately for me, Purdue also forgot that there was a game Sunday, so instead of the normal keen-eyed offense, they brought that carnival game that we saw hints of against Nebraska and Butler. (Fun fact: carnivals might use rims that are as small as 17” x 10.5”. If you're thinking “wow, that’s barely wider than the basketball!” … yep, that’s the idea.) In fact, if you took just the three-point shooting at Nebraska and just the two-point shooting in Indy, you’d get almost exactly what happened yesterday: 27/17/FTs don’t matter when you shoot that poorly slash numbers. (28/18/40, if you must know, and yes, that last number is just as bad as the first two.)
0.6 PPP, with an eFG% of .275. Purdue hasn’t shot that poorly overall in the kenpom era (2002-2020). In fact, there have only been four games in the last ten years (the sports-reference.com era, and not counting DII opponents) where a team has had slash numbers that bad:
Texas State at Texas, 12/13/2014 - .231/.167/.300 in a 59-27 loss
Washington State at Arizona, 1/2/2014 - .212/.167/.385 in a 60-25 loss
UC-Riverside at USC, 12/15/2012 - .227/.071/.300 in a 70-26 loss
Only one other game between power-conference opponents, equally unwatchable. (It should be noted that Purdue’s margin of defeat was the smallest in the group, and their point output was the highest, so … there’s that?)
Texas would end up 20-14, stealing a bubble bid from a more deserving team and losing 56-48 to Butler in their first-round game. Texas State was 14-17 and had lost to Texas every season since 2005; the year before that, they lost to Purdue, 61-50, and maybe figured that an in-state loss would be cheaper. (Or something.)
Washington State was victim #14 of an Arizona squad that won its first 21 games, lost just twice in regulation during the regular season, and made it to the regional finals before losing in OT to Wisconsin. The Cougars were 10-21 that year, with conference wins over only Utah, Washington and UCLA. They also beat Purdue 69-54. Fun times!
USC finished 14-18; the Riverside game was their only win in an eight-game stretch, and their only regulation win in an 11-game sequence that saw them lose by 30 to Illinois, 12 to Nebraska, and 7 to UC Irvine. Riverside ended up 6-25.
Brad Underwood seems to have figured out that frenetic basketball doesn’t work so well in the Conference That You Can Spell Without A D Even If It Plays Good Defense; the Illini have slowed their tempo from 52nd to 193rd, boosting their defense from 108th to 34th (roughly where John Groce had it in his initial and final seasons). A patient defense is bad news for a team with shooting woes like Purdue has. Fortunately, the conference has … (looks at adjusted defense on kenpom) uh, well there’s Iowa, Northwestern and Nebraska. (looks at schedule) Oh.
The Good Guys don’t get a return visit from Nebraska, and the home-and-home with Iowa doesn’t start for a month. Until February 1, when the Boilers ought to look a little better in Evanston, they have … (looks at schedule) uh … um … at least Rutger isn’t that … what? Oh.
The blowout of Virginia seems more and more like an anomaly. The actual strength of Purdue seems more along the lines of the team that squeaked out a double-OT win at home against Minnesota and lost at Marquette. Apparently what happened in last year’s Elite Eight matchup is that Purdue accidentally borrowed Rogue’s power and acquired smothering defense and bad shooting from Virginia, helping the Cavaliers win the tournament and dooming the Boilers to a mediocre 2020. (If only they’d waited until after the game to steal the bad shooting …) The defense may already have been on its way there, but the offense, well, if you can’t hit from outside in this conference, you’re going to have real problems.
We likely won’t learn anything from the next three games, as Michigan is a solid team even without Isaiah Livers, Michigan State is their usual (fortunately that game isn’t in the Breslin Biased Officiating Center), and Maryland would apparently like to remind everyone which Big Tenteen team has the most recent NCAA title. Illinois travels to West Lafayette on the 21st for a rematch; let’s hope that Painter is able to convince his Rogue-team to give up their mutant powers and restore their shooting ability before the Illini return.
Right now, Purdue’s projected record has dropped to 10-10 in conference play. That’s likely bubble/NIT position, with seven conference teams projected to have winning records and two others (Illinois and Rutger) projected at 10-10 with the Good Guys. When you hear Boiled Sports staff talking about how we root against most other conference schools, this is why: it looks great to have the Big Tenteen atop the list of conference strength (on kenpom, they lead by about a point and a half), but it means that every game is even tougher than the Every Road Game Is Tough crowd would have you believe … and oh by the way, home teams are 20-3 in conference play, so that crowd is on the money this season. (In contrast, ACC home teams are 10-14. In what is likely related news, kenpom puts just three ACC schools in the top 25 and five in the top 50. The B14 has 10 and 12, respectively.)
So every road game is a bear to win unless you’re playing Nebraska or Northwestern, and Purdue already dropped one of those two games this season. Good luck, Good Guys … you’re going to need it.
The Good
I forgot to watch the game.
The Bad
All 40 minutes.
The Ugly
The final score and the box score.
Up next
The Delany version of the old-school road trip, where traveling partners Purdue and Indiana Minnesota visit Michigan and host Michigan State for games on Thursday and Saturday Sunday. The Good Guys are underdogs in both games - kenpom has them +4 at Michigan and +2 vs MSU, fortunately sports books don't generally set lines this far in advance because, well, you try and manage a full week of games for 353 teams.
Anyone want to help me collect Vyr’s Amazing Arcana?
Feature photo is from Purdue Swimming and Diving’s trip to Fort Lauderdale, courtesy of Purdue Athletics and taken by Sydnee Emerson or Blake Ratliff. If you feel the need to see Purdue win a few more conference titles, swimming and diving might be your spring ticket. I hear the divers in particular are pretty good.
