Pre-Penn State Purdue Prognosticators

November 29, 2 Boiled Sports

"Put it in Sharpie."

I said it at the beginning of the season- Purdue would lose to both Ohio State and Michigan...and I said we could put it in pen. Prior to the Iowa game a few weeks ago, I told my BS counterparts, they could put a PSU loss "in Sharpie." Why? Well, Joe Tiller-coached teams, without a quarterback named Drew simply don't win games in which they are not favored...further, they REALLY don't win in those contests on the road. Vegas thinks Purdue will lose by 7...and thinks the game will be relatively high-scoring with the over/under set at 52 (that'd have Purdue scoring just over three TDs.

Last year, Purdue faced a similar Penn State team and got worked 12-0. Although our Boilers only lost by twelve, it might as well been 120, because Purdue looked they simply could not score versus the always-stout Nittany Lions' defense.

The only time Purdue has won versus a Nittany Lion team in Happy Valley was in 2003 when the #10-ranked Orton-led Boilers took Purdue to 5-0...that Purdue was a much-better team than that PSU team, but Purdue could only manage to eek out a win. I think we're all in agreement that logic tells us our Boilers should lose at Noon tomorrow...Let's see the predictions:

Tim Says:
I predict Purdue will lose, but not because of who they're playing. They will lose because they cannot win 3 games in a row at this point in the season.

Penn State 20
Purdue 10

*That said, they COULD win. I wouldn't be surprised if they did in fact. But they won't. They COULD though. That's all I'm saying.

J Says:
I think we all agree that this is precisely the kind of game that Purdue loses. I agree with Tim, though, that of all these kinds of games, this is one that really does FEEL like we COULD win. PSU is not all that good. Morelli will not be the one who beats us. In fact, if we have a lead late in the game, I'll actually feel good because I don't fear that offense very much at all. However, as always, PSU has a pretty solid defense (despite the fact that OSU just pasted them) and the biggest factor, let's face it, is the home-field advantage.

Normally, I don't think home-field means SO much, but at Penn State it does. The students are impressively loud and literally shake the stadium by jumping up and down. Also, while I love our Stadium holding 60,000+ for big games, theirs holds 110,000. Damn. 50K more than ours. That's something our guys are not used to. And unlike the 100K+ at Michigan, this place is actually loud. The Stadium feels tall and like it's tightly surrounding the field and I imagine the visiting players notice this. And I think Purdue players and coaches will not be able to tune this out.

So in the end, I think we will lose. And this will be one of those extremely frustrating ones because I think, talent-wise, we can absolutely hang with PSU and, in truth, I think we've got more talent on the offensive side of the ball. However, we've all seen how Painter and crew react when facing a challenge against a Big Ten power.

Saying all this, it's of course tempting to pick your own team, especially when they're on a decent little roll here and beginning to make us believe again. However, when looking at this season objectively before it all began, I felt this was one of those games we absolutely would not win, no matter how well or badly things were going. Like Tim, I definitely wouldn't be shocked if we won and I plan to be watching and being optimistic for a victory. But to be realistic, I'm going to say it doesn't happen.

Penn St 23
Purdue 19

Boilerdowd says:
Purdue heads into the most intimidating venue in the Big Ten versus a team coming off of a loss...not a good combo. I said "Put it down in Sharpie" because I was positive Purdue would lose this game...three weeks ago. Now, maybe I'm an idiot, a Purdue shill, or maybe I simply am an optimist, but I think that sharpie is going to need some heavy white out.

Tiller pulled the Senior class aside following the UM debacle and asked them how they wanted to be remembered. They responded with two convincing wins...both with defensive dominance and a grit that we haven't seen in the last few seasons. In fact, Tiller-coached teams have only one three games during his tenure at Purdue in which they were down entering the fourth quarter...And they did so last week (in convincing fashion, mind you) versus a pretty-good NW team. Coaches coach, but players make plays...I think that will happen this week.

Plus, we're celebrating my younger brother's 30th birthday and the PSU game is the centerpiece of the get-together...And Tiller wouldn't want to piss him off on such a special day. So Purdue will win one for him. This brother has also seen Purdue beat PSU & UND on the road (how many Boiler fans can say that?)...so he's a lucky bastard.

Purdue 32
Penn State 24

Stat of the Week:
Big Ten teams that lose to tO$U this season are 0-4 the following week...Let's make that 0-5.