What better way to start a new season than with a reference to a song that’s almost 50 years old? Yes, I’m old enough to remember when AM was what people listened to and FM was this odd thing that had weather and stuff on it. (In fact, I remember when that Eagles song came out - my brother and I listened to it on our radio, pictured here. Good times!)

Anyway. When last we left our heroes, they had pulled out an amazing five-set win over BYU in the Sweet 16; they would go on to fall to Pitt in the Elite 8. By the way, if you didn’t get a chance to see that match, I highly recommend it - you can watch either the fifth set by itself or the entire five-set match from NCAA’s archive. (I don’t think they’re directly available anymore but I seem to have a playlist of them, not sure what’s going on there but probably the NCAA are jerks.)

After back-to-back Elite 8 appearances, one of the most decorated classes in Purdue history took its leave, and with free Covidshirts gone (that extra year now counts against the 12-scholarship limit), a lot of teams are rebuilding or reloading, including the Boilers. Let’s take a quick look at each position group, helped out in part by what we saw in last week’s 3-0 weekend in Knoxville, and then take a look ahead at the season to come.

Outside Hitter/Opposite

Departing: Caitlyn Newton (five years up), Grace Cleveland (graduation)
Returning: Maddy Chinn (senior), Emma Ellis (senior), Madeline Koch (senior)
Arriving: Eva Hudson (freshman), Brielle Warren (freshman), Emily Rastovski (redshirt freshman)

The Boilers are hardly starting from scratch here, as they return a trio of attackers that filled in quite capably last season, whether it was the third spot in the rotation or to give Newton or Cleveland a break. It’s always tough to replace All-Americans, but this might be a position where there isn’t necessarily a lot of dropoff.

I still don’t know enough about how Purdue uses its opposites to know which of the seniors is likely to start there, or if one of the three freshmen is a better fit, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see everyone who’s playing this season get some reps up front - as always, expect Dave Shondell to use non-con play as a chance to try out the folks he hasn’t yet categorized, which means that the absence of someone on the court probably just means he knows exactly what they bring and will not hesitate to play them in conference play.

Last weekend, Koch got a good bit of playing time, with Chinn playing quite a bit and Ellis getting spot duty … but it was Hudson who got the bulk of the work, and the freshman from Fort Wayne (Bishop Dwenger) made it count, garnering B16 Player and Freshman of the Week honors for hitting .343 with 47 kills and adding 3 aces, 17 digs and 2 block assists.

Neither Rastovski nor Warren played; the latter might be on track for a redshirt, as Purdue once again has enough players to redshirt more than just their usual MB.

Setter

Departing: Hayley Bush (graduation)
Returning: Megan Renner (redshirt junior), Sydney Yim (redshirt freshman)
Arriving: Grace Balensiefer (transfer from Northern Illinois)

For only the third time in the last nine seasons, Purdue will have a new starting setter; Bush’s four-year run followed four years from Ashley Evans. The position should be in capable hands, as unlike Evans, Renner has multiple years of experience in the Purdue system. At 6’2”, she’ll provide a little extra defense at the net and possibly a little more punch on the attack; I will note that I saw one attack of hers against Tennessee that looked like she basically dunked it, and if that’s what we’re going to see this year, I wholeheartedly support it.

The Boilers haven’t run a 6-2 since Evans’ predecessor, Val Nichol, shared time as a junior with redshirt senior Rachel Davis in 2013, so it was a bit of a surprise to see Balensiefer return home this season (she is one of two McCutcheon grads transferring to Purdue). It’s hard to know exactly what’s going to happen in conference play, or even against the strong non-con opponents, but Grace did play in three sets this weekend, and it would be a surprise if she transferred back for her final year just to hold a clipboard and wait for a rout to see the court. Either way, having an experienced backup definitely helps at this position, and Yim has a year here as well in case she’s needed.

Middle Blocker

Departing: Jael Johnson (graduation), Taylor Trammell (transfer to Penn State)
Returning: Raven Colvin (sophomore), Lourdès Myers (redshirt sophomore)
Arriving: Hannah Clayton (transfer from Iowa), Lizzie Carr (freshman)

Now that’s a lot of movement! With the retirement of legendary coach Russ Rose at Penn State, there were many transfers in both directions, one of them being Trammell - hopefully she has a solid career at PSU. I’d expected the normal rotation of Colvin and Myers, with Carr possibly redshirting, but the arrival of Clayton adds some more depth to what has usually been Purdue’s deepest position.

Colvin’s play last season made her the obvious choice for #1. Clayton should get a ton of minutes in non-con play as she adjusts to Purdue’s defensive system, and it’s entirely possible that she’ll be the #2, with Myers earning spot duty and Carr being this year’s redshirt (years 2-5 of a 6’6” middle? yes please!). Again, it would be unusual to see a grad transfer end up getting only token minutes, so in this particular case, I think the weekend play may actually reflect what we’ll see in October and November.

Libero/Defensive Specialist

Departing: Jena Otec (five years up), Marissa Hornung (graduation), Emma Terwilliger (graduation)
Returning: Maddie Schermerhorn (senior), Ava Torrance (senior), Ali Hornung (sophomore)
Arriving: Emily Brown (transfer from Missouri with two years left)

Technically Ali is listed as DS/OH on the roster, but you’ll notice there are only four players listed in this section for this season. I doubt she’ll see any time at OH; in fact, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if one of the shorter outsides got some practice at DS. A normal L/DS lineup is 1 libero, 2 defensive specialists, and 1 serving specialist for those rotations where maybe you don’t want your other MB serving … and that’s all we have right now.

Fortunately, it’s an experience-heavy quartet. Schermerhorn got the libero nod this weekend and is likely to have it for a while, but Brown may well push her, as the McCutcheon product started at libero for her two seasons at Missouri, and it may well turn out that the best of the trio is Hornung, at least as long as the OH depth chart keeps here in this section. Torrance should be the serving specialist this season, and will have the experience to step in if there’s a need in the rotation.

Weekend results

W 3-0 vs Bowling Green (25-23, 25-18, 25-23)

W 3-0 vs Loyola Chicago (25-14, 25-23, 25-19)

W 3-1 at Tennessee (20-25, 25-23, 25-18, 25-19)

Not much of a surprise; the set scores may have been a bit close, but this is the first year with regular turnover since before the pandemic, it was on the road, etc etc. For a change, the Boilers started off as favorites, ranked #13 in the polls … wait, you know I don’t really pay much attention to polls unless there’s a landmark there. OK, so they started off …

what.

So keeping in mind there’s even a lot of noise in rating systems (San Diego is not the 6th-best team in the country), Purdue started off 7th and moved up 4 spots after these wins. I think that’s a bit high, but then again, Shondell has kept the Boilers competitive year after year, there’s been some key losses among other contending teams, and … who knows? Maybe this is the year. For now, let’s run with it. (I like that 25-5 projected record right now, yes I do.)

Non-conference schedule

Mostly your normal tuneups, with a few notable matchups: hosting #24 Utah this weekend, visiting #5 Louisville next Friday, and hosting #59 Ball State the following Saturday (I believe one team had to pull out of that weekend, so it’s a three-team thing instead of four). Massey thinks Purdue can just about run the table, with only Utah putting up resistance in Holloway (sorry, Cardinals) and a five-setter in store at Louisville.

9-1 would be a great start, especially since those three opponents above are in the 60s and 70s. (Not that a B16 team needs strength of schedule help!) I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 8-2, since - as we know from the NCAAs not too long ago - Utah can be a challenging opponent, and the Boilers tend to have at least one rough outing in non-con play. But seeing how Purdue dispatched some potentially-quality opponents already, anything worse than 8-2 is likely a disappointment.

Conference schedule

Two games: Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State
Only home: Rutgers, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Only away: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State

All things considered, it’s not a terrible schedule. Minnesota and Nebraska are the only top-10 opponents appearing twice, and Wisconsin and Ohio State are only here; Illinois is the only dangerous opponent solely on the road. (Sorry, Northwestern, I’m not buying Massey’s take on you yet.)

Minnesota is clearly stronger in Massey’s ratings, with the Gophers favored in five in the conference opener in Holloway and four in the return match at Maturi. Purdue is a slight favorite at Nebraska (very much like at Louisville) and is favored in every other conference match. Only six of those are predicted to be four sets; 8 sweeps are on the board.

17-3 would be ridiculously good. I would be ecstatic. 26-4 overall with three road losses is a top-4 resume, which means hosting regionals in addition to the first two rounds. Even 25-5 might get you there, especially this season. Now, that’s not how rating systems work, and we do have to account for the fact that there’s always inertia in there because the previous season does play a role in how teams start the next season … 2021 is just a different kind of “previous season” because of the Covidshirts departing.

Let’s say Minnesota takes both matches, as does Nebraska. Purdue falls to Ohio State at home and Michigan on the road. 14-6 is still pretty solid, and given how things are shaking out so far, that seems like a more accurate median result than 17-3: 12-8 would be unfortunate but feasible in this conference, and 16-4 definitely seems doable if the pieces fall into place.

Season outlook

The thing about your team getting good is that you can’t help yourself. Volleyball is interesting in that it’s a sport that uses a lot of players and requires a lot of points to win, so you’d think that it would favor the better team much more often, but all it takes is the wrong rotation catching them in a bad matchup and you can run off enough points once or twice to steal a set or more. (Or, in a close match, an amazing sequence to somehow pull a victory from the jaws of defeat … did you watch that BYU match yet?)

The pandemic is still here, which means we still have those extra areas of uncertainty: who might have to sit out, how are folks handling yet another year of dealing with all this, is there a chance a key match might get postponed or canceled, etc. Add to that the normal uncertainty in a sport where getting into that top 16 is about a 75% chance of making the Sweet 16 (not evenly distributed, of course) and getting a coveted top-4 seed may be the difference between two and three busy weekends in December. Now try to figure out where Purdue is going to finish!

Prior to this weekend, I’d have said a worst-case scenario is the Boilers getting bounced in the second round. I just didn’t see them dropping off enough to lose to an unseeded team - this coaching staff isn’t going to let that happen, and there are too many returning players for the program to drop that far. But after that Tennessee match, dropping the first set on the road in front of a raucous crowd (the SEC deciding to go all-in on volleyball is fantastic for the sport) and then taking the next three, with the last two comfortable wins, I think it’s the Sweet 16. Purdue grabs a low seed, dispatches opponents in Holloway, and then takes an L on the road in the regional semis - no shame in that, especially not given the run they’ve been on.

Best case? If they can somehow get through both Utah and Louisville, they have a real shot. The top of the conference is still brutal, but right now that includes the Good Gals and not quite so many of their opponents. Split with Minnesota and Nebraska, have the annual unexpected loss because this conference really is that tough on the road, and lay waste to the remaining schedule … you’re talking Mackey volleyball in December at that point.

The Final Four is in Omaha this year. I didn’t buy tickets. Maybe I should have.

Pictures from a road match! Everything today is courtesy of Purdue Athletics, and we greatly appreciate both the folks who took these shots and the folks who let us use them with attribution here.