2021 VB Preview: Return of ... Everyone
When last we left our favorite volleyball team, they had parlayed a 7-seed into their first Elite Eight appearance since 2013; they were unable to take a set from 2-seed Kentucky, but the Wildcats went on to win their first NCAA title, so if nothing else, the Boilers may have felt a little better about the sweep.
So the 2021 season looked extremely promising … but at the time, we didn’t know how the super-senior season would play out. Purdue’s two seniors were both named All-Americans, so losing either one would have been significant. The Boilers would be strong even if both left, but if they both returned?
Well, here we are in August, and we know that both third-team All-American Caitlyn Newton and honorable mention All-American Jena Otec are back for one more season, and Shondell himself mentioned a handshake agreement with Mike Bobinski that will keep him around for some time, I expect. (Shondell’s current contract was set to expire after the 2022 season - EDIT: it now expires in 2024, which is somehow a four-year extension??) Nobody transferred out, a great freshman class has come in, and we end up with the largest roster Purdue’s had in quite some time, maybe even the entire Shondell era. Will it be enough for the Good Gals to break through that ceiling and reach the program’s first-ever Final Four?
Rough position projections
I won’t go into the detail I provided in the 2020 season wrapup. Let’s just go through the positions. Note that I might have done some of this differently if I’d made it to either of the scrimmages, but I didn’t, although if you just guessed that Shondell’s starters would mostly be returning players, you’d have been right the vast majority of the time during his tenure here. Having said that, if someone does break into the starting lineup other than due to injury, that’s a very good sign.
With the expanded roster, expect to see some different combinations, especially in later sets where Purdue has a significant lead. Anyone who isn’t a sure redshirt is going to get some non-conference playing time now that there’s some to be had again. Also, as in previous years, don’t worry if a certain starter isn’t starting in non-conference play.
Oh, that roster? If you haven’t seen it already, check out the individual pics over on Exposure. (This is their usual preseason promo stuff, only in digital form, and featuring each player individually, which is very cool.) I like that they’re doing this, even though I can’t explain why you’d have some GIGANTIC pics and some very very tiny ones. You can size them appropriately on the site! You don’t need to have a pic that requires me to scroll more than a page on a 4K monitor just to figure out who’s in it!
OH/Opposite
Newton and Cleveland for sure. Ellis, Chinn and Koch should divide up most of the remaining time, although if Rastovski isn’t going to redshirt, I’d love to see what she has during non-conference play. Cleveland may well be on track for pro money even if she would want to pay her way for a fifth year; if she doesn’t return, it’d be good to have some experience at opposite, and Rastovski could push either there or at OH.
MB
We know … hmm. Johnson and Trammell will be the first-match “starters” even if they don’t both start. Myers, Colvin and Brown are all going to be in the mix. Myers can’t redshirt because she already did, Brown likely won’t because it’s rare to redshirt anyone not a freshman, and Colvin won’t because she’s ready to play right now. But she might! I don’t know.
Colvin might be good enough to push someone out of the lineup. Myers or Brown might break through. Trammell could be the #1 middle by season’s end. Johnson could end up as an All-American. Anything could happen in this group! Well, almost anything. One thing that will not happen is that Purdue will not run out of talented folks to put at MB.
Setter
Probably the easiest of the group to project: Bush will start and play just about every point, Renner will fill in as needed, and Yim will redshirt. Purdue isn’t going to a 6-2, and in a 5-1 there just aren’t enough reps for a third-string setter.
Libero/DS
Otec at libero, Marissa Hornung at DS. And … more of that “anything could happen.” Schermerhorn will probably be the next DS up, Terwilliger will probably be the serving specialist. Torrance will probably get spot rotations. Chacon will probably push Terwilliger and maybe Schermerhorn, but Ali Hornung might blow right past her and maybe even challenge her sister for reps. If someone struggles, there’s more than enough depth to give them a break and let someone else have a chance.
Assuming that Marissa doesn’t use her fifth year, the real question will be who the libero is for 2022. If it turned out to be Ali, I don’t think I’d be very surprised.
Conference projections
Making the Final Four might actually be easier than winning the conference, as has been the case for pretty much ever (that’s a technical term). The preseason AVCA poll slotted the Boilers at 8 … fourth-best among Big Tenteen teams, behind #2 Wisconsin, #5 Nebraska, and #7 Minnesota. Wisconsin and Minnesota combined to deal Purdue four of its seven losses last season (they did not play Nebraska), and getting past either one of them will prove to be a challenge once again in 2021.
Massey goes one better, putting the Boilers right where they were seeded last tournament, at number 7, again behind those same three teams, only in slightly different positions (#2 Wisconsin, #3 Nebraska, #6 Minnesota). Ohio State sits at #8, Penn State is 11th, and Illinois is 17th. Below that is a tightly-bunched group that is most likely there due to the conference-heavy schedules from 2020: Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland are 49-51 and are at the tail end of the conference. As good as the Big Tenteen is, I don’t think the worst team in the conference would be good enough to make the NCAAs elsewhere … but it is a challenge to beat even the worst of these teams, especially on the road. For now, sure, let’s assume that the bottom 4-5 teams end up with double-digit losses, almost all of which are in conference play.
With the tournament back at 64 teams after the debacle caused by yet another inexplicable NCAA decision abbreviated format last season, it's reasonable to expect the conference to get 6-7 teams in easily and have another 3-4 in contention for bids. For a change, Purdue seems solidly in the first group, but their schedule will feature a number of matches against the second group, as it always does.
Projected record
Let’s do this in the opposite order we’ll see them: conference first, then non-conference. As per usual, all ranks are Massey ranks.
Top-tier conference opponents
2 Wisconsin (home and away)
3 Nebraska (home and away)
6 Minnesota (away)
8 Ohio State (home and away)
11 Penn State (home)
17 Illinois (home and away)
It’s not the case that Penn State managed to get Purdue off their home schedule as a result of the Boilers posting their first win in Happy Valley since 1943 or something like that, but it is nice to see that the Good Gals “only” make five road trips against the projected top six. The flip side is that Purdue has 7 top-10 matches right there, 10 against top-20 competition, and that’s only half their conference schedule
I can see this splitting 5-5; I think the Boilers will take one match against the teams above them and drop one against a team below them.
Second-tier conference opponents
27 Michigan (home)
32 Northwestern (home and away)
44 Rutgers (home and away)
46 Iowa (away)
Michigan definitely belongs in this group, I’d be surprised if all three of these other schools are still in the NCAA mix at the end of the season, but you never know. To get another top-8 seed, Purdue needs to sweep these two remaining groups. They catch a break not playing the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, and that should help them go 6-0.
Third-tier conference opponents
49 Indiana (home and away)
50 Michigan State (home)
51 Maryland (away)
I could see IU making a run at an NCAA bid; to be honest, either MSU or Maryland could also end up in the second tier (I would expect both Northwestern and Rutgers down here). Tough break record-wise to get only four matches instead of six from this group, but Purdue has had an iron grip on the in-state rivalry for some time now, and while the Hoosiers are certainly getting better, this isn’t the season where Indiana pulls off a surprise win. 4-0 against this group.
Non-conference schedule
vs 13 Louisville in Cincinnati, vs 19 Tennessee
vs 28 Washington State in Las Vegas, vs 37 Kansas, at 47 UNLV
vs 70 Loyola Marymount, at 100 Xavier or vs 114 Lipscomb at Cincinnati, vs 119 Jacksonville State, vs 155 Purdue-Fort Wayne
Maybe a little light on top-tier competition, but more than half the slate is in the top 48 (my rough line for “legit at-large chances.” And a couple of days in Las Vegas right before Labor Day weekend. If we weren’t still in a pandemic, I would totally go to that … sigh. Anyway, Purdue can afford a top-20 loss, but that depends on them doing the work in conference play, and ideally this will be a 9-0 start. I think the Boilers will get that done.
Overall season projection
By-the-numbers math would give me 15-5 in conference play and 24-5 overall. That is most likely a top-8 seed, not that different from last season, except that Purdue would host the first two rounds in Holloway like in 2019. I think a best-case scenario is 17-3/26-3, and at that point, depending on the three losses, they might actually have a shot at a top-4 seed, which is really where you want to get - if you can host both early matches and regionals, that’s four straight on your own floor to get you to the Final Four. Purdue is certainly capable of doing that.
Having said that, the SEC and Pac-12 will have something to say about the top seeds, and even the Big 12 or ACC might get a longshot there. (Remember, Purdue’s 2019 run ended at 1-seed Baylor.)
The worst part of being in this range is that to a certain extent, what happens is out of your hands. I don’t think the Boilers are quite good enough to win the conference, which means they either need to be just short of that or they need something like a favorable NCAA draw or an upset to clear a path for them … if they don’t pull the upset themselves, like they did in 2010 against 1-seed Florida.
But the talent is there, the coaching is there, they had solid tournament runs the last two seasons, and they have one more shot to get something no team before them has managed. It’s also true that next year’s team is going to be pretty solid as well - while Purdue will lose up to 7 players (remember that anyone on a roster during 2020 gets an additional year of eligibility, although those extra years do count against the cap of 12 starting in 2022), they’ll have 5 seniors and 9 other folks potentially returning, in addition to the incoming class of 2022 … but this is a chance to continue the work to build something that can be around for a long time (ask Wisconsin or Minnesota about that - I don’t know if Penn State or Nebraska ever weren’t good, lol).
Can we be optimistic, just this once? Even unrealistically optimistic? Let’s be honest, while some of you do appreciate the analytics, everyone likes a good homer from time to time. So let’s do it. The Boilers won’t get a top-4 seed, but they’ll pull off a couple of surprises along the way, and come tournament time, one of the top 4 seeds won’t be going to Columbus. Instead, we’ll see the Old Gold and Black. And I do mean “we”, because I may have already bought Final Four tickets just in case.
To be honest, I’ll probably go even if the Boilers don’t make it. It’s not often that the Final Four is within driving distance, and you know how much fun it is to watch top-level volleyball. (The next time for those of you who are local is 2024, when Louisville will host. For those of you outside the state, the next two sites are Omaha and Tampa.)
The Good Gals won’t win the championship, but they’ll stake a claim to a spot that next year’s squad will try to hold. It’s been 20 years since we got to talk about a Purdue Final Four team. About time for another one, don’t you think?
Feature photo courtesy of Purdue Sports from that series on Exposure. Does Dave Shondell look like a coach who’s worried about the upcoming season? Do you think they’d fly to Columbus?
