Here’s the season in a nutshell: when the 48-team NCAA tournament field was revealed, the announcers noted that the winner of a key Penn State-Purdue match at Penn State improved their seeding, and in fact may actually have earned that seed, with that win.

They were talking about Penn State.

Season recap

The Boilers were one of just five Big Tenteen schools to play 20 of 22 matches (nobody played a full schedule), and they took full advantage, posting a 14-6 record that turned out to be good for fifth in the toughest conference in the country. If there was a bad loss, it was the season finale, a 2-3 loss to a young Illinois squad that finished 7-11 overall. Their other losses were the season openers to unbeaten Wisconsin without Grace Cleveland, the five-set losses to Minnesota, and the 1-3 loss above at Penn State. They played a surprising 1-loss Ohio State team in Columbus and handed them a pair of 3-1 losses.

In addition to a number of weekly awards, the Boilers pulled in a number of postseason awards. All-American teams won’t be announced until right around the Final Four, but here’s what we’ve got so far.

• Senior libero Jena Otec made first-team all-conference and was also named Defensive Player of the Year, the first time a Purdue player has ever won that honor.

• Senior OH Caitlyn Newton, junior OH Grace Cleveland, and redshirt junior S Hayley Bush also were named first-team all-conference, the first time Purdue has had four players with that honor. Those four received All-Region honors as well.

• Freshman MB Taylor Trammell was named to the All-Freshman team, the first Boiler with that honor since MB/OH Danielle Cuttino in 2014, and was All-Region Honorable Mention.

• Junior DS Marissa Hornung was named the team’s Sportsmanship Award honoree.

• After the Ohio State wins, Cleveland was the AVCA National Player of the Week, only the fifth Boiler to receive that honor. (The others were Stephanie Lynch in 2006, Rachel Davis and Ariel Turner each in 2011, Turner again in 2012, and Sherridan Atkinson in 2018. Lynch, Turner and Atkinson also ended up as first-team All-Americans.)

• The Boilers also swept the weekly conference awards that week: Otec was Defensive Player of the Week, Bush was co-Setter of the Week, Trammell was Freshman of the Week, and Cleveland was Player of the Week.

On top of that, Purdue earned the 7 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament, the second-highest seed in program history. (The Boilers were the 5 seed in 2011, when they beat Morehead State and Louisville in West Lafayette before falling to 12-seed Florida State in the regional semis in Minneapolis.) While they don’t get to host again this season, all seeded teams get a first-round bye due to the limited field, so the Good Gals will wait for the winner of tomorrow’s Central Florida-High Point match.

Purdue is 3-0 overall against UCF, but hasn’t played them since 2009; they’re 1-0 against High Point, having won the only meeting between the schools in 2017, also in the NCAA tournament (in a first-round match in Salt Lake City). The Boilers dropped their opening set before rallying to a 3-1 win, 21-25, 25-14, 25-22, 25-12.

Should they advance, they’d likely face Oregon in the regional semis. The Good Gals are also unbeaten against the Ducks, winning a 3-2 match in 1984 and a 3-1 match in 2007, both on neutral courts (but not in postseason play). A win there would set up a regional final against 2-seed Kentucky, which would be the fourth NCAA meeting between the Wildcats and Boilers. Purdue holds a 2-1 advantage in the tournament part of the series, picking up wins as a seeded team in 2006 and 2010 and falling to the seeded Wildcats in 2018. Overall, Purdue holds a slight edge, 11-10, having won the last meeting, a 3-2 match at Kentucky.

Aside from that? I dunno, it’s a COVID year. Purdue is currently at full strength and seems to be running on all cylinders; Dave Shondell has said this is the best team he’s had at Purdue, and I don’t think that’s just standard coach hyperbole. But … things happen. On top of the vagaries of single-elimination play, there’s always the chance that something will go wrong. The Boilers have been snakebitten their last two deep runs; hopefully this year they can avoid that bad luck.

The bracket is here and should update with links to watch the matches. As you may have heard, first- and second-round matches will be on ESPN3 with actual commentary (the original plan was to have just a camera, for reasons only the worst PR people working for the NCAA can tell you), and matches in later rounds will be on … some ESPN network, somewhere, probably. But not unless they’re shamed into it, or something.

Conference teams in NCAA play - Updated for Round 2

Note: I usually rely heavily on Massey ratings for analytics. This year, in volleyball moreso than other sports, those ratings are likely off in some places because there was so little interconference play, meaning it’s much harder than usual to judge the relative strengths of conferences. I’d expect strong teams in weaker conferences to perhaps be underrated, and weaker teams in traditionally strong conferences to be overrated.

1 Wisconsin vs Weber State, Thursday 7:00 PM

The #1 overall seed gets a slightly tougher draw than expected, with #37 Weber State or #42 Bowling Green up next, but Wisconsin shouldn’t have trouble with either one. BYU may be a bit underseeded as well, #11 in Massey but a 16 seed; the Badgers ran through the Big Tenteen without a loss, so I’d expect them to at least reach the Final Four this season, meaning they’ll get past 8-seed #10 Florida as well … or will it be Ohio State instead?

Weber State advanced with a 3-1 win over Bowling Green; I’d expect a Wisconsin sweep.

3 Minnesota vs Georgia Tech, Thursday 7:00 PM

Minnesota will beat either team, but would have an easier time against #68 Lipscomb. #27 Georgia Tech swept Florida State twice but were swept by Notre Dame, Louisville, and Pitt, so I’d expect them to be 3-0 or 3-1 losers if they advance. Expect a tough challenge from #7 Utah, the 14 seed, in the regional semis. Minnesota is almost always playing at home in the tournament, so the lack of homecourt could be a factor there, although on the flip side Utah will not be playing at altitude. The Gophers would need to pass another Pac-12 team, #2 Washington, to reach the Final Four, as the 6-seed Huskies are another potentially underseeded team.

Georgia Tech also advanced 3-1; Minnesota could drop a set if the Yellow Jackets are on, but this is also more likely a 3-0 win for the conference.

5 Nebraska vs Texas State, Thursday 3:30 PM

The first-round matchup here is a coin flip between #54 Texas State and #55 Utah Valley. The Huskers will get #16 Baylor in the regional semis, as the Bears dropped a bit from last year’s 1 seed. Getting past them would pit Nebraska against #5 4-seed Texas, and that should be a really good match. Was the Big 12 strong enough to prepare Texas for this match, or will Big Tenteen play get Nebraska to yet another Final Four? But wait! What if it’s Nebraska and 13-seed Penn State?

Texas State advanced with a … yep, 3-1 win. Nebraska in 3.

7 Purdue vs High Point, Thursday 3:30 PM

#24 Central Florida is a tough second-round opponent if they get there, with #14 Purdue possibly overseeded as well. #65 High Point isn’t likely to get past the Knights, and if the Good Gals beat UCF, the #8 Ducks would like a say as to who deserved that 7 seed. Pull off that win/upset and it’s #4 Kentucky as the 2-seed. Could this be the year Purdue finally makes it to the Final Four?

High Point picked up its first-ever NCAA win in a thrilling five-setter against UCF; it was a tough ask with full rest, but they were pushed to the limit and won’t be playing Purdue at altitude this time. Boilers in 3.

9 Ohio State vs Missouri, Thursday noon

#12 Ohio State, the surprise of the conference, likely gets a tough Missouri squad. But the #29 Tigers didn’t beat a marquee opponent this year, either in the fall or the spring. They should have enough to see off #76 South Dakota, but the Buckeyes should advance. A win there puts OSU against 8-seed Florida and then probably 1-seed Wisconsin. I wouldn’t expect OSU to make it all the way there, but they’ve recorded some strong wins this season, and on a neutral floor, anything can happen.

Missouri swept South Dakota; I think they’ll take a set from the Buckeyes but OSU will prevail in four.

13 Penn State vs North Carolina A&T, Thursday 10:30 PM

Yes, you read that correctly. Penn State is a 13-seed and was likely still too high: the #17 Nittany Lions get #39 Rice or #199 North Carolina A&T. HBCUs typically struggle, so expect it to be the Owls, and then 4-seed Texas in the regional semis. Can PSU earn a matchup with Nebraska that COVID cancelled during the regular season? I hate to bet against a Russ Rose team, but if you’re going to do it, this is probably the year.

Speaking of COVID, it canceled the Owls, sending them home in a no-contest that sent the soon-to-be-Big-South members NC A&T to the second round. The Aggies could have used a warmup match, I think, although they likely wouldn’t have beaten Rice. Penn State will sweep.

NCAA Tournament Schedule

• First-round matches Wednesday at noon, 3:30, 7, and 10:30

• Second-round matches Thursday at the same times

• Regional semis Sunday 4/18

• Regional finals Monday 4/19

• National semis Thursday 4/22

• National championship Saturday 4/24

Why the rush? Probably because the faster they get the tournament done, the less likely it is that the NCAA will screw up yet again. It’s not a great position to put these teams in, but the year the NCAA puts the athletes and schools first will be the first time it’s ever happened, and given what’s going on right now, this isn’t the year. (Tents for “locker rooms”? please.)

Feature graphic courtesy of Purdue Sports. We won’t have any action shots from the tournament - COVID year, you know. I’ll improvise.