Mackey Magic Overwhelms Iowa, 104-68
Usually, when a team with good offense plays a team with good defense, the cliche is that the game is decided on the other end. Tonight, that meant one of two things: either Iowa was going to bring the carnival rims Purdue’s been shooting at most of the season, or the Boilers would demonstrate yet again why Fran McCaffery has never had a solid team at Iowa despite having top-20 offenses more often than not.
The Good Guys had 61 at halftime.
Coming into the game, Big Tenteen teams had won nearly 75% of conference games, the highest percentage in the conference in the kenpom era. Only the Ivy League has seen more of an advantage (81.2%). And it’s been as obvious this year as any that playing in Mackey usually goes poorly for opponents. This, however, was something different. I’m going to list some things that happened today.
Purdue fell behind 0-2, then ran off 17 straight points.
Seven different Boilers hit three-point shots; four Boilers hit three or more.
Sasha Stefanovic hit 5 of 9 outside, but also drove at nominal conference Player of the Year Luka Garza every chance he got (which was often, since Garza switched onto him or straight-up guarded him quite a bit).
Evan Boudreaux went 4 of 6 behind the arc, but also drove right past Garza for an easy layup on one possession.
Aaron Wheeler - yes, that one - was 4 for 5 from the field, including 3 of 3 inside the arc. He hit a midrange jumper. It was the most natural thing in the world. His last shot was a dunk on a play where a three from Thompson actually missed; the rebound kicked off an Iowa player and rolled straight to Wheeler, who was standing alone underneath the basket.
Wheeler’s offensive rating on kenpom was 202. He wasn’t the MVP.
Matt Haarms went 6 of 8 from the floor, hitting his only three, scoring 15 points in 19 minutes.
Eric Hunter Jr. was the fifth Boiler in double figures (Wheeler and Williams each needed a point to join the group) and added 7 assists against just 2 turnovers. He was “only” 3 of 8 from outside, but most were good looks, and someone’s got to miss threes, right?
Purdue had 18 assists and 2 turnovers in the first half.
Nojel Eastern hit a token shot, but more importantly, stuck to Joe Wieskamp the whole game (Wieskamp was 1 of 5 from deep and had just 8 points), made great on-ball decisions (6 assists, 1 turnover), scrapped for loose balls (team-high 3 offensive boards; Purdue rebounded 40% of their own misses), and did the things we wanted to see from him tonight.
Trevion Williams had a quiet 9 points, including a sequence that summed up the night early on: he stole the ball from CJ Fredrick, drove it to the hoop for an and-one, missed the FT but Eastern got the board, Hunter missed a three but Purdue kept possession, Stefanovic missed a three but Eastern got the board, and finally Hunter hit a three for a five-point “possession”.
Jahaad Proctor was perfect from the field (6 for 6 overall, 3 of 3 from three), adding 3 boards and 3 assists with no turnovers; on one drive he hit a reverse layup that had more English than Shakespeare.
Proctor’s offensive rating was 249. He wasn’t the MVP. (It was Boudreaux, who was at 206.)
Tommy Luce hit two threes, pushing the Boilers over 100 with the first and drawing a charge immediately after the second.
Garza scored 26 points (no other Hawkeye was in double figures). Not a single one of them mattered.
Look, I’m not sure I believe this happened, so I can understand if you don’t think it did. That’s fine. Let’s just pretend it’s real and enjoy it while it lasts, shall we?
To be sure, there were some … not-good things, I guess. The officiating was terrible for stretches, although at one point I think the lead ref realized that the Michigan-Ohio State game was the one where they were supposed to stop making calls, and at that point they actually did start to call fouls (although Iowa is still grabby on screens and mostly got away with it). The Good Guys had another lazy perimeter pass turn into a transition basket, plus they still don’t seem to know how to handle full-court pressure. (Protip: do not run up the court and leave your teammate to bring the ball up 1 on 2.) Several possessions ended with questionable passes that became turnovers (Purdue had 9 for the game).
But none of those things mattered tonight. Iowa missed a few good looks early, Purdue hit just about everything, and then the lead was so big that not even jacked-up threes by Iowa backups would make a dent in it. (Maybe it’s nitpicking, but I did notice that Purdue’s reserves run plays while Iowa’s reserves shot 30-foot threes.)
Yes, Iowa is bad on defense. B A D. Basketball is kind of like racing in that offense and defense are like braking and cornering: you have 100% to split between the two. Slam on the brakes and you’re going straight, whip the wheel hard right (road course) and you’ll likely get a crash course in physics, or balance the two and stay on the road. Iowa chooses the no-brakes option, and it burns them over and over against good competition. Hawkeyes looked tired early in the second half from having to chase Purdue players over and over and over at the other end (a motion offense is the best thing to use against a team that wants to score a lot); even Garza began to tire, and as he became less effective, his teammates might as well have not even been there. A 10-0 Purdue run pushed the lead to 39, and at that point the only questions left were “will they break 100” and “will Luce score”.
Will this carry over to the next game? Partly, yes. It will be a road game, but it’s the one game every year where no Boiler needs any additional encouragement, and it certainly can’t hurt that Indiana has lost four of six (although like Purdue, they beat MSU at home), which probably isn’t a great thing for a fan base that has the patience of a 16-year-old boy on speed.
Where it will carry over, I think, is in individual performances. Wheeler finally had a game to balance out earlier efforts. Proctor and Boudreaux were exactly what they were meant to be when they transferred to Purdue. Team defense forced Garza to earn his points and shut his teammates down; team offense broke down Iowa relentlessly. Matt Haarms did not get T’d up for slapping the floor after a possibly-bad call. (It was more about him asking why he didn’t get a matching call on the other end, and I’m guessing the ref didn’t even consider a T because, well, Haarms had a good point.) But the tall guy also had a solid offensive game, hit a three of his own, and helped bring the energy that drives this Purdue team when they’re playing well.
As is usually the case in a year like this one, where there are so many pretty-good teams and not many really-good teams, analytics now think Purdue should be in; a .500 conference record puts them at 17-14 overall on kenpom, and Torvik flips the IU game to the Good Guys (the road game; Purdue’s obviously favored in Mackey) to put them at 11-9 and 18-13 prior to the tournament, which would give them a solid 8 seed, right ahead of Rutger. (Remember, this is based partly on how the team is playing.)
Since Torvik’s scenario would have the Boilers collecting three wins against teams projected to finish behind them in the NCAA bracket (2 vs Indiana, 1 vs Rutger), I could see that happening IF some of this good fortune hangs around Mackey a bit longer, and if Purdue does what they ought to do on the road. As hard as it’s been to win away from home, none of the remaining road games are out of reach if the Boilers play more like tonight than like the team that lost to Illinois (either time). Ohio State is better in analytics than in real life, Wisconsin is getting their just deserts (plus Davison should be about due for another suspension), and Iowa, well … they’ll be in Iowa City, but their defense won’t be any better.
Just for the heck of it, I used Torvik’s Teamcast to project Purdue’s seed if they won out. He says a 5 seed and a share of the conference title that they’re defending. Now, that’s not going to happen, but … sure is fun to think about tonight, isn’t it?
Feature photo courtesy of @cdcole55 on the Twitters
