At this point we know exactly what this team is, what they’re capable of, and some sense of where they will end up at the end of the season. Surprises could still happen, of course, but 27 games into the season those surprises tend to be both mild and almost always negative.

So then maybe it’s take to take a step back and ask ourselves: what do we really have with this team? Now that we’re rounding the corner in February, can we place our finger on what reasonable expectations are for this team?

First, the good. Big wins over good teams like Michigan State and Iowa. Dominating performances at home, a wonderful win in Bloomington, and a solid non-conference record. Trevion Williams continues to be impressive; there aren’t many opponents who have been able to bully him the way he’s able to bully others. He’s got a beautiful baby hook and knows how to use the glass. Evan Boudreaux has morphed into a serviceable player. Eric Hunter has made giant leaps since last year. Isaiah Thompson has done quite a bit as a freshman. Sasha - when he’s hitting - is damn near impossible to stop from distance (that quick release is so niceeee).

But the negatives? There’s a couple we could talk about. This Purdue’s offense is one of the worst in recent memory. This is a team of grade B offensive players who really need someone to spark them, but can’t create on their own. You can usually tell within the first couple of minutes of any given game whether they’re going to win or not. Closing out tight games is a challenge (this game, the Michigan game earlier this season). Rebounding is really up and down. Defense is up and down.

But what is perhaps hurting this team the most is a complete lack of consistency. Good games by an individual is rarely followed up by another solid performance in the next game. Guys either can’t miss or can’t hit. You never know what Purdue team you’re going to get when they step out onto the court.

Thus when we take a step back, all of that sort of begins to make sense. This team is just chronically unable to pull together enough of a strong effort in whole to beat a good team, especially away from home. And ultimately, this inability to knock off a good win or two on the road is what’s going to keep this team from making the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, they are still on the bubble, and a lot can happen in the remaining four regular season games. Three of those games are at home (the away game is at Iowa, which might get ugly). Realistically, this team probably needs three of the next four to have a prayer at the Tournament, as well as some lucky breaks with other teams falling apart at the end.

It’s disappointing, and although I think we all knew the post-Carsen year would be a transition I don’t think anyone was expecting this degree of up-and-down.

They’ve got four games and the Big Ten Tournament to figure this out. Time to see what this team is made of.