VB Beats Michigan Twice, Grabs NCAA 16 Seed

Sorry, I was sick last week and couldn’t give Senior Day its due.

I thought that there was pretty much no chance Purdue would end up grabbing a seed for the NCAA tournament - they just didn’t have enough quality wins. At best, if they beat Michigan home and away and finished off MSU, they might get lucky … and that’s exactly what happened. After a sweep in West Lafayette and a five-set win in Ann Arbor, the Boilers found themselves in an unfamiliar spot on Selection Sunday: seeded.

It’s been eight seasons since Purdue last hosted NCAA tournament matches; in 2011, they got the #5 seed and beat Morehead State and Louisville. Under today’s rules, they’d have ended up in Ames since they were in 4-seed Iowa State’s bracket, but at the time, regionals were predetermined, so they played at Minnesota instead. The Cyclones knocked off the hosts, but 12-seed Florida State upset the Boilers and ISU as well to reach the Final Four, losing to eventual champions UCLA.

Let’s take a quick look at first- and second-round matchups for the seven conference teams that made it to the tournament. Note that all first- and second-round matches on BTN+ are free, no subscription required (the NCAA prefers it this way, which I think is wise - the more visibility the tournament gets, the better off the sport will be).

16 Purdue vs Wright State, 7 PM Friday (TV: BTN+)

The Boilers open NCAA play against Wright State, who received an at-large bid after losing in the Horizon tournament to Northern Kentucky. The Raiders have one notable win on their resume, a 3-2 win at Notre Dame; they split with UW-Green Bay and Milwaukee and took both conference matches from NKU. As is typical for first-round matchups with seeded teams, they should pose little resistance for a Purdue team that’s playing its best volleyball of the season.

A win will present an intriguing matchup with either #21 Marquette or #51 Dayton. The Golden Eagles looked to have an inside track on a bid before dropping their season finale at home to St. John’s; Marquette had big early-season wins at BYU (3-1) and Wisconsin (3-2), plus a neutral-site 3-2 win over UCF, but conference play didn’t provide them much top-50 opposition and Creighton took both matches from them. The Flyers played a brutal non-conference schedule, beating Michigan 3-2 but losing to Texas A&M, Florida, Louisville, and Missouri. Like Marquette, they didn’t have much in conference play to test them, dropping their only match win Cincinnati and splitting with VCU (losing in regular-season play, winning the A-10 tournament title). Marquette will likely advance, and the Boilers should beat them as well, but they’ll have to be sharp: Marquette may have a chip on their shoulders.

4 Wisconsin vs Illinois State, 8 PM Friday (TV: BTN+)

The Badgers got the coveted fourth seed, the last team to be guaranteed a regional host spot if they win their first two matches. They should have no trouble with MVC champions Illinois State, who do have wins over Illinois and UCF at home, but lost to Ohio State and Dayton in Columbus and took two of three (including the MVC final) from Northern Iowa).

They’ll face the winner of UCLA-Notre Dame, which should be a great match to watch. The committee did UW no favors by shipping the Bruins to Madison, and as we already know, the Irish can be a dangerous opponent as well. Most of UCLA’s losses were to quality opponents, and although being swept at home by Colorado may have contributed to them not being seeded, they did have eight sweeps of top-50 opponents in conference play, including one of Stanford, so if they’re at their best, they will give Wisconsin quite a challenge. Notre Dame’s best win is, uh, that 3-2 home win over the Boilers in early September. They did sweep Florida State in Tallahassee, but didn’t take a set off Pitt in their lone meeting with the Panthers. They’ll put up some resistance, but nothing like what Wisconsin can expect if UCLA advances to face them.

5 Nebraska vs Ball State, 8 PM Friday (TV: BTN+)

The Huskers just missed the regional cut, but are next in line to host if Wisconsin doesn’t make it to the Sweet 16. The defending runners-up have only lost to three teams this season: Wisconsin (twice, both sweeps), Stanford, and Purdue. The Cardinals won’t make it four - they surprised Bowling Green in five sets to steal the MAC title, but have exactly one top-100 win this seasons, a 3-2 win over #73 Grand Canyon at Gonzaga in September. Purdue dismissed them in three sets earlier that week; Nebraska should do the same.

The opening match in Lincoln is another good one, with Northern Iowa taking on Missouri in a rematch from a tournament Missouri hosted in September, where the Tigers won 3-1. The Panthers got an at-large bid after being upset in the MVC tournament by Illinois State; they took a set in the season opener at Texas and pushed Creighton to five sets in Cedar Falls, but likely won’t be able to run with the Tigers. Missouri swept Michigan in Dayton in September before their win over the Panthers; they also beat Texas A&M in five sets, swept South Carolina, and won in four sets at Georgia, so the Tigers should be able to push Nebraska a bit if they get that far … but I’d still expect the Huskers to advance.

7 Minnesota vs Fairfield, 7 PM Friday (TV: BTN+)

An odd start time since it’s 6 PM local; people expecting a 7:00 start might miss the majority of this match, as the Metro Atlantic champions are overmatched in this one. The Stags don’t have a win over a top-200 opponent and dropped matches to #164 Temple, #187 Cal Baptist, and #285 Canisius. This one will be quick.

The one to watch will be the opener between Iowa State and Creighton. The two teams actually played an exhibition match to open the season, with Iowa State prevailing 3-2 in Ames, but a lot has changed since then. The Cyclones managed just two top-50 wins, 3-0 over surprising South Dakota and 3-1 over Oklahoma, while Creighton was thought to have an outside shot at a seed thanks in part to wins over Kentucky, USC, and Marquette (twice); losing to St. Johns in their Big East tournament opener likely didn’t help, and neither did an 0-3 loss at Villanova in early November, but those were their only losses to Big East compeition, so while the majority of their recent schedule wasn’t quite as tough, the Bluejays handled it well, and I’d expect them to face Minnesota on Saturday - the Gophers should still win that one, though.

11 Penn State vs Princeton, 7:30 PM Friday (TV: BTN+)

There’s a running joke online about how Penn State always gets easy regionals, and while that’s largely because of scheduling patterns (the NCAA has to pay to fly teams more than X miles from the host site), it’s also true. The Ivy League champs have two wins in three tries against #93 Yale, and that’s it for top-100 wins - their stay in Rec Hall should be short and sweet.

They’ll face the winner of the Towson-American match, who should end up with the same fate as the Tigers. Towson has a splashy record and went unbeaten in Colonial play (both regular-season and tournament), but has no win better than a 3-0 win against Princeton and a trio of wins against James Madison; American, the Patriot League champs, dropped a single match in conference play but faced only three top-100 opponents and lost to all of them, and also dropped a 1-3 decision to #239 Hartford in late August. Towson is likely to advance and then be quickly dispatched by the hosts.

Michigan vs Northern Kentucky, 5 PM Friday (TV: none?)

The Wolverines didn’t earn a seed, instead getting shipped to Lexington where they’ll face Horizon champs Northern Kentucky. The Norse have a 3-2 win over Cincinnati on their resume, but actually struggled more in conference play than Wright State did, so they needed the Horizon tournament win to get into the NCAAs. Michigan should take care of NKU relatively easily.

They’d then face the winner of 9-seed Kentucky and Southeast Missouri State. The Wildcats shared the regular-season title with Florida, a team they beat twice during conference play. UK’s only conference losses were to #25 Texas A&M and #35 Georgia, and their worst non-conference loss was to Indiana in five sets, so they shouldn’t have a problem with the Ohio Valley champs, who have no good wins and a number of bad losses. Expect this one to go three sets and set up a great match between UM and UK on Saturday.

Illinois vs Utah, 6 PM Friday (TV: BYUtv app)

The Illini survived a loss in their regular-season finale at Northwestern, squeaking into the tournament but getting shipped out West as a result. Their first-round match will be a tough one, facing a Utah squad that was also in the hunt for a seed. The Utes had a 3-0 sweep of Kentucky and a 3-1 win over Washington at the top of their resume as they held their own in Pac-12 play, picking up six other top-25 wins and dropping just one match outside the top 50 (at #53 Oregon in five sets). The Illini have just one top-50 win, that 3-1 win at Purdue in early October; they simply haven’t looked like the same team that made it to the Final Four last year, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them fall to Utah.

The winner of that match gets the winner of 14-seed BYU and New Mexico State, which will almost certainly be BYU and would then be a rematch of their September 19 meeting in Salt Lake City, which the Cougars took 3-1. Two days later, BYU went to Stanford and won 3-1; those two matches alone are pretty impressive. The West Coast Conference didn’t put up much resistance, and BYU did lost to Marquette and Texas during the season, but they should have no problem with the WAC champion Aggies, who have just their three wins over Grand Canyon in their top-100 column. Home court does make a difference - as Purdue learned two years ago at Utah - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Utes come out of this subregional.