S-E-C! S-E-C! It’s the Mizzou Predicto
Purdue heads to the deep south of Columbia, Missouri this Saturday to take on traditional SEC power Missouri. Truth be told, we actually have a special place in our cold black hearts for Mizzou football (we even appeared on the Mizzodcast this week) ever since they joined the big, bad SEC and won their division immediately. They also had the good sense to hire Cuonzo Marin to coach their basketball team since they weren’t able to nab Matt Painter a while back. Black and gold loves black and gold, I guess.
But now it’s time to be Frenemies.
Does Purdue have a chance?
Michael: Yeah, I think they do. Wow, it's been a crazy couple of weeks. Mizzou...is not a good a team. BUT they are a legit P5 team, in comparison to the last several Purdue teams, which were P5 teams in name alone. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this Missouri team. I mean, it's hard to score 72 points against anyone, even Missouri State. But they looked really, really bad against South Carolina; fairly impotent on offense and incompetent otherwise. So yeah, this is the type of game that Purdue could pick off. And if they do, I'm not saying they will, but I'll say that they could make it to a bowl. And that would be quite remarkable.
Dave: Heck yes. Missouri's defense looked bad against a I-AA school who hasn't had a winning season since 2009; against South Carolina, a team that had its own issues in Charlotte the week before against NC State, the Tigers did slightly better on defense and much worse on offense. Bill Connelly's stats suggest that Missouri is maybe a 3-to-1 favorite, but they're heavily weighted by a) Missouri State and b) Purdue's history, which is reasonable in most cases. No one can predict how a new coach can transform a team; since Connelly also points out that Missouri struggles in passing downs this year, a spot where Purdue's defense looked pretty weak against the reigning Heisman winner, it's fair to suggest that 75% is high. 7 points is one score. I might take the points.
J: Before the season, almost nobody looked at this game as one of the potential wins in a 3-4 win season. Now two weeks in and almost everyone I know is picking Purdue. We’re all-in on Brohm and it feels good. So yeah, there’s definitely a chance.
Aneesh: I haven't felt this good about a Purdue non-conference, non-joke road game since...probably Purdue at Notre Dame in 2010. Purdue had emerging superhero Ryan Kerrigan and an experienced defensive core to complement Robert Marve, Rob Henry, Ralph Bolden, and Keith Smith returning on the offensive side. Notre Dame just fired Charlie Weis, lost Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate, and were looking just vulnerable enough for Purdue to stand a chance.
The Boilers ended up losing 23-12, with the offense looking hapless for most of the night.
Let's hope that doesn't bode poorly for this weekend, as Mizzou looks to be in a similarly vulnerable position for a scrappy Purdue team to take advantage. The Tigers are coming off a 4-8 2016 season, just suffered a demoralizing home loss to floundering South Carolina, (meaninglessly) fired their Defensive Coordinator even though HC Barry Odom calls most of the defensive plays, and has solid offensive pieces but a defense that seems to be coming apart at the seams. This projects to be a high scoring game (the over/under is a whopping 78.5), and Purdue is only a 7.5 point underdog on the road...so yeah, The Good Guys have a pretty good shot.
Bdowd: Indubitably. Mizzou is scrambling for answers as their defense is an absolute sieve. I'm looking for Blough to start and have another MASSIVE second quarter as the Tigers have really struggled in the middle quarters allowing a ton of points.
Purdue wins if....
Michael: The fundamental formula for success applies here: don't turn the ball over, turn your opponent over, and run the ball well. They ran the ball well last week against Ohio, with the OL looking a lot better than anyone could have reasonably guessed before the season started. Keep causing fumbles and not giving up possessions and you gotta like their chances.
Dave: Purdue wins if they get off the field on third down. On defense, that is: the offense has worked out that situation well. We knew the Boiler defense would be a work in progress, and so far that's still true: opponents convert 41.4% of third downs this year, which is 83rd in I-A, but also just ahead of Indiana and Ohio State. Since Missouri is way down at 51.6%, 118th in I-A, it's reasonable to expect Brohmball to keep putting up points - as with many games this season, if the defense can cut a few drives short, that may be enough for a win.
J: They can outscore the Mizzou offense. My feeling is both offenses will churn and both defenses will be out of breath by the end of the game. If Mizzou’s offense stalls like it did versus South Carolina and Purdue’s receivers can catch the ball, then I like the Boilers chances.
Aneesh: ...the offense continues to work at a blistering pace, and Nick Holt's defense continues to be as aggressive as Nick Holt's eyebrows. This game could end with both teams in the 40s, with one well-timed blitz swinging the victor. And, with David Blough looking like the efficient version of himself last week and Tario Fuller breaking out, Purdue's offense could pull off the training wheels and go for broke. THE YEARS OF PURDUE'S CRAZY OFFENSE ARE BACK, BABY.
Bdowd: They can run the ball effectively and the defense brings the effort again. A few defensive stops coupled with a drive or two should turn effectively blow this one open. I believe we'll see Sindelar play again...but another performance in the zip code of last week's for #11 will make him the clear starter. Something to watch for: Purdue's turnover hungry defense is playing a team that was -3 in the TO battle last week...If the good guys win the turnover battle, they'll win a road game v. an SEC foe...not too shabby.
Are you officially at the point where losing at Mizzou (technically an SEC school) would be a letdown for you?
Michael: No, not yet. Getting blown out would be a huge letdown, but I still think Purdue is in rebuilding mode, and when you're rebuilding, there aren't many teams where losing would be a letdown.
Dave: Would a loss be a letdown? Not really. This is the first true road game for Brohm's Boilers, even if Faurot Field isn't exactly your typical SEC stadium. They have yet to show growing pains that should be part of the transition process, and while we'll almost certainly see some of those at Homecoming, I wouldn't be surprised to see some in Columbia as well. (Besides, I predicted 2-10, right? So my expectations are already pretty much met.)
J: Only in the sense of being disappointed after any loss when your team has a chance. Purdue has a legit shot and that’s fun.
Aneesh: While at this moment I'm made up of 85% Brohm Kool-Aid, a loss to Mizzou on the road three games into the Brohm era would definitely not qualify as a letdown. It would be closer to a reality check for a roster that shouldn't be talented enough to hang with even a bottom-half SEC school, and underline that superior coaching and an exciting scheme still falls short to a significant talent disparity.
That being said, if any objective unaffiliated college football fan had to pick which bandwagon to jump onto right now, every single one would pick Purdue. The double-reverse Flea Flicker [It wasn’t a double reverse – J] became a national story, and had fans from every fanbase drooling over what Purdue had become seemingly overnight. So even though we're not at the point where a loss to a bad SEC team is "disappointing," we're way further down that path than even the most optimistic Boilermaker fan could have hoped.
Bdowd: We talked about this a bit during the HH 'cast...Our Boilers are playing with the house money right now. I'm the only one who admits his change of heart in public- I picked Purdue to win three games before watching the loss against L'Ville...now, after watching Brohm's effect on the program, and a few B1G opponents struggle, I think my Boilers are a 6 or 7 win squad. Winning their second before entering the conference schedule would put them in the catbird's seat for a game in December.
Final score prediction?
Michael: I'm really tempted to be a Debbie Downer and pick Mizzou but I'm ready to believe in this team. Purdue 27, Mizzou 17.
Dave: The Boilers light up the scoreboard again, but a questionable call and a couple of missed assignments prove to be the deciding factor: Missouri 46, Purdue 41.
J: I’ll stay in the kool-aid pool. Purdue 45, Mizzou 41.
Aneesh: The first underwear-on-my-forehead prediction of the year: Purdue wins on a game-clinching fourth down sack. Purdue 48, Missouri 44.
Bdowd: Purdue 34, Mizzou 20.
