It's Time to Get Corny -- The Nebraska Predicto
Purdue opens as a 6.5 point favorite against the Children of the Corn. Both teams are 3-4, Mike Riley looks like a dead man walking… you could definitely argue both teams need this game. And after last weekend’s egg-laying in NJ, do the BS guys feel bearish on the Boilers?
Not really, as it turns out.
------------------------------------------------------------
Does Purdue have a chance?
Michael: Yeah, I think they'll win. But they have to figure things out on offense. Nebraska is kind of a mess this year, and so Purdue should be in a position to take it.
Swamy: I mean, yeah sure why not. Hosting this game in Ross Ade aka The Thunderdome©®™, Nebraska floundering under a lame-duck coach, and Nebraska's defense being gashed most recently by Wisconsin and OSU all work in Purdue's favor. And yet...Nebraska has a functioning offense with a decent QB in Tanner Lee and good receiving options, they're coming off a bye, and Purdue looks completely lost with the ball. I don't buy the 5.5 or 6 point spread at all, and think it'll be much closer than any of us are comfortable with.
Boilerdowd: Nebraska's most impressive game to date is a loss to an OK Oregon team on the road. Wins over mighty Arkansas State, Illinois and Rutgers don't impress me...yes, I know what I just said...So Purdue very much has a chance of winning this game, and most of the remaining contests on the schedule. The question really is: What the hell was last week????
Dave: Trying this again. Last week I sent it and got a 404 Victory Not Found error.
Does Purdue have a chance? We need to change up that question. The answer the rest of the season is "yes". Don't take it from me, listen to Bill Connelly - the picture below is from Football Study Hall and shows Purdue's remaining schedule and his system's predictions.
Vegas ain't lyin'. The Good Guys are favored in this game plus three of the next four, and as long as the Iowa start time isn't 7:30 Eastern, aka "the time at which weird stuff happens in Iowa City", there's a chance it'll be all the rest of the games.
J Money: Sure, and as Dave points out, this question has been outgrown by the Purdue football program, which is nice in and of itself. So yes, they have a chance again and Nebraska seems wounded and maybe ready to collapse. Let’s hope so.
In your opinion, does Purdue have to win this game to keep hope of a bowl game alive?
Michael: Yes. Dammit, Rutgers was the GIMME! Yeah, they gotta get this one and then go for Northwestern and Indiana. I think Purdue can win each of their remaining games (in isolation, they have virtually no shot of winning them all) but you don't really feel good about banking on that. They gotta pick this one off.
Swamy: Absolutely. Dave is right, Purdue should be slight favorites for most of the remainder of the schedule...but if the Boilers can't muster enough points to beat Rutgers or this Nebraska team, I'm not sure how you can be comfortable at Northwestern and vs Indiana. A loss should reset Purdue fan expectations to preseason levels -- 4 wins would be a marketed improvement, 5 wins would be out of this world, and 6 wins would be a dream. But, I think unfortunately, this roster has shown us that they're capable of notching 6-7 wins...so the sting of disappointment will be unavoidable if Purdue can't win this weekend and fails to hit 6.
Boilerdowd: I believe Purdue's bowl chances aren't reliant upon this game as there are still four beatable teams left...But my belief in who is beatable will wane significantly if the Boilers are in a stooper on offense again; not just in this game, but within any half for the remainder of the season. But a win versus Nebraska could get the Good Guys back into a semblance of rhythm offensively...which was no where to be found last week on offense.
Dave: Not really. There are 78 bowl spots up for grabs this season; right now, there are 77 teams at or above .500, and remember, two years ago, two Big Tenteen teams (Minnesota and Nebraska) joined San Jose State as 5-7 bowl participants. (To get into the weeds a bit, Purdue's APR for this bowl season is 971, which is roughly middle-of-the-pack. There are currently 34 teams with better APRs who are no more than one game above .500; if we narrow that down to just sub-.500 teams, Purdue is 24th; if it's just 3-4 and 3-5 teams, they're 16th. So an APR-based spot from a 5-7 record is unlikely at this point.) However, back-to-back losses against a weak-but-improving Rutgers team and a slumping Nebraska team would raise questions as to whether the Boilers had enough left in the tank to win three more games ... just as analytics initially weren't sure how they were playing so well, they might also struggle to explain the losses. So you can count that as yes if you like. I'm not worrying about it.
J Money: Absolutely and without discussion. Lose here and you’re 3-5 needing to win three of your final four. There’s no way that happens, folks. Win this weekend. (Unless Purdue manages to get to 5-7 and wiggles into a bowl like the last Nebraska team Purdue beat.)
Purdue wins if….
Michael: They figure out how to *&%ing score a TD. Trust in Brohm. He's an offensive guru, he knows what needs to be done, but the question is, are Purdue's players good enough? They got earlier in the year by being slippery, but other teams have sort of figured that out. I have to think that Brohm has more weapons waiting to deploy, but things are not getting any easier. A key injury on the offensive line has made the problem even harder for Purdue, not like they were giving the QB a ton of time to go through his progressions anyway. I'm gonna hold out hope that they can right the ship, but if they turn in another FG-heavy performance and lose, it might be time to write off the season.
Swamy: Jeff Brohm finds his playbook, and one quarterback finally emerges. I have no idea what happened last week, but good lord were some of the plays frustrating. An empty backfield on a 4th-and-1? Calling for Sindelar to throw deep? Worship only getting 5 carries? I expected more against Rutgers, and David Blough seemed to tap into the best part of his game during Purdue's final drive. Elusiveness fueled that march down the field, capped with a beautiful (yet unbelievably risky) TD pass to Mahoungou...that's the Blough we wanted to see all year, and I think he's the quarterback Purdue needs to roll with for the rest of the season.
Boilerdowd: Purdue wins if last week was just an aberration. I really don't believe that six games of tendencies are all kaput just because Purdue looked like a redux of the '16 Boilers during their visit to New Jersey. This team needs to do nothing special or fancy...just play like they're capable of playing, in my opinion. The home crowd should help them get some of their swagger back.
Dave: Purdue wins if they take care of business. Nebraska's already laid three eggs this year: sure, two were against Wisconsin and Ohio State, but the third was against a very beatable Oregon team. Yes, Purdue's also laid three eggs, and like Nebraska, one was nearly a win anyway (Purdue had just a 10% win expectancy against Louisville, 1% against Michigan and Wisconsin), but unlike Nebraska, one of the remaining two "eggs" was still a one-possession game at the end, and even last week's poop was a two-point conversion away from possible redemption. The best thing for a new coach and an up-and-coming team after a bad performance is a vulnerable opponent, and Nebraska fits that bill perfectly. In particular, Nebraska's offense is bad, and as mentioned by some handsome gents recently, Purdue's defense has somehow become a strength, not a weakness. Hammer time!
J Money: If they find their creative offensive mojo. It’s no more complicated than that. The defense is going to show up and most likely will get a takeaway or two. If the offense from the Louisville, Mizzou, Ohio or fourth quarter of Minnesota show up, I like their chances.
Final score?
Michael: Purdue: 21, Nebraska 17. Hope springs eternal.
Swamy: Purdue 27, Nebraska 24
Boilerdowd: Purdue 27, Nebraska 23. I'm still on board...but I need to be reminded why.
Dave: The weather will play a factor, but rain and snow tend to hurt a bad offense more than a decent one. No shutout, but something close enough for the Good Guys. Purdue 27, Nebraska 6.
J Money: I’ve talked myself out of this one all week. I believe in this coaching staff to make the necessary adjustments...but four straight games of weak-kneed offense has me worried. In a Boiled Sports-ism, I sincerely hope to be wrong. Nebraska 21, Purdue 16.
